TRANSFORMATION OF THE MARKETING ENVIRONMENT OF UKRAINE’S SUNFLOWER OIL MARKET AMIDST UNCERTAINTY AND WARTIME RISKS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32782/pdau.eco.2026.5.18Keywords:
sunflower oil market competitiveness, pricing, sunflower oil exports, market geography, maritime logisticsAbstract
The purpose of the article is to identify the key directions of transformation in the marketing environment of Ukraine’s sunflower oil market under the influence of wartime risks and to assess the changes that have occurred in production, export logistics, market geography, price parameters, and regulatory conditions governing access to foreign markets. The empirical basis of the study was formed using official data from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, the Ministry of Economy and Environment of Ukraine, and the Ministry for Development of Communities and Territories of Ukraine for 2021–2026. Dynamic, structural, and comparative analysis methods were applied. The results show that after 2022 the market did not return to its pre-war configuration: sunflower oil production in the 2025/26 marketing year decreased by 13.4% compared with 2024/25, whereas exports declined by only 5.1%. The export-to-production ratio increased from 86.9% to 95.1%, indicating the relatively greater resilience of external sales, although part of export supply was maintained through a reduction in inventories. The recovery of maritime logistics significantly changed export conditions: Ukraine’s total seaborne exports increased from 56.2 million tonnes in 2023 to 88.1 million tonnes in 2024, or by 56.8%. At the same time, the geographical structure of sales shifted substantially. The EU share of Ukrainian sunflower oil exports rose from 30% in 2021 to 56% in 2024, while India and Middle Eastern countries retained their importance as alternative sources of demand. The study also identified a strengthening of the value component of exports. In the first quarter of 2026, foreign exchange earnings from sunflower oil exports increased by 20%, while physical export volumes grew by only 3%; the estimated average export value per unit of product rose by approximately 16.5%. Based on the results obtained, the main directions of transformation in the marketing environment of Ukraine’s sunflower oil market were systematized in a table, demonstrating how the identified raw-material, logistical, geographical, price, and institutional changes affect enterprises’ marketing decisions.
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